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Yaorusheng | Moment | Getty ImagesAsia-Pacific markets were mixed ahead of China's April trade data, as well as pay statistics from Japan. Economists polled by Reuters are expecting a 1.5% rise in China's exports, a reversal from the 7.5% fall in March. Imports are also expected to grow 4.8% year-on-year in April, compared with a 1.9% fall in March. Separately, investors will assess pay statistics from Japan as they look for any signs of the "virtuous cycle" of increasing wages and prices envisioned by the Bank of Japan. Futures for Hong Kong's Hang Seng index stood at 18,277, pointing to a weaker open compared to the HSI's close of 18,313.86.
Persons: Korea's Kospi Organizations: Reuters, Bank of Japan, Japan's Nikkei Locations: Shanghai, Asia, Pacific, Japan
Weekly jobless claims rise to highest level since August
  + stars: | 2024-05-09 | by ( Lucy Bayly | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +2 min
New York CNN —First-time applications for unemployment benefits rose last week to 231,000, the highest level since August, in another sign that the white-hot labor market is starting to cool off. Thursday’s data also showed that the number of continuing claims, or applications from people who have filed for unemployment for at least one week, was 1.78 million. That’s an increase of 17,000 from the prior week, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Although the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9% last month, it’s the 27th consecutive month that the jobless rate has held under 4%, matching a streak last seen in the late 1960s. The Federal Reserve has been battling inflation by raising its key lending rate in the hopes of slowing the economy.
Persons: , Chris Rupkey, Jerome Powell, ” Ian Shepherdson, It’s Organizations: New, New York CNN, Bureau of Labor Statistics, , Federal Reserve, Pantheon Economics Locations: New York, Fwdbonds
LONDON — The Bank of England on Thursday announced a widely-expected hold on interest rates following its May meeting, as it said restrictive monetary policy was working to bring down inflation. Members of the central bank's Monetary Policy Committee voted 7-2 to hold, with the latter favoring a cut. In the prior meeting only one member voted for a cut. It keeps the BOE's key Bank Rate at 5.25%. Some economists see a cut as soon as the next meeting in June, and three or more cuts in 2024.
Persons: Matthew Swannell, CNBC's Organizations: Bank of England, Monetary, MPC, BNP
In 2022, at the height of the "great resignation," a record 4.5 million workers each month — about 3% of the U.S. workforce — were quitting their jobs. While some economists have said this pandemic-era trend is over, new research from Microsoft and LinkedIn forecasts that even more people plan to leave their jobs in 2024. And Americans' confidence in their job-hunting prospects has reached its highest point in two years, a February 2024 ZipRecruiter survey of more than 2,000 jobseekers shows. Despite high-profile job cuts at a few large companies, layoff rates, much like unemployment, are lower than before the Covid-19 pandemic. Americans are more confident about their career prospects — but dissatisfaction with continuing high inflation and their current roles could equally be driving them to seek new opportunities.
Persons: Julia Pollak, Organizations: Microsoft, LinkedIn, CNBC Locations: U.S
Central banks are on a gold-buying spree, contributing to record-high spot gold prices. Other central banks are also snapping up gold to diversify their assets on the back of a strong greenback. Other central banks are also loading up on gold. Emerging market central banks that bought gold in the first quarter of the year include Kazakhstan, Oman, Kyrgyzstan, and Poland. There are political motivations for central banks to diversify their assets, too.
Persons: , it's, bode Organizations: Service, People's Bank of China, greenback, Gold, JPMorgan, Allianz Locations: China, Turkey, India, Kazakhstan, Oman, Kyrgyzstan, Poland, United States
Rich baby boomers jumped in with all-cash offers, and sellers scored huge windfalls as weary buyers pushed prices to new heights. After all, people have to move for a wide variety of life reasons; mortgage rates be damned. "The further and further we get from the peak of the market," Peterson told me, "the harder it is to deny what's happened." Mortgage rates haven't fallen — in fact, they've gone up about 0.6 percentage points since the start of the year. "It can always be tricky telling somebody that they were just lucky because it makes you sound envious," Peterson told me.
Persons: Rich, Sellers, Eric Peterson, Peterson, Austin, Freddie, they've, Selma Hepp, Freddie Mac, Mike Simonsen, Redfin, towners, Libby Levinson, Katz, Price, Levinson, John Burns, they'll, Realtor.com, you'd Organizations: Freddie Mac, Reserve, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Altos Research, Sun, John, John Burns Research, Consulting Locations: Austin, Boise , Idaho, Denver
That shakiness around when the cuts are coming, as well as the expectation that rates could remain higher for longer creates an opportunity for active managers. Rick Rieder, BlackRock's global chief investment officer of fixed income, told CNBC in a phone interview. Indeed, core bond funds were among the winners in the 2008 crisis. For starters, they should think about the role they want a given bond fund to play within their portfolio: Is it to offset equity risk or to boost returns? "You're not investing in bond funds to shoot the lights out and build your wealth pile," said Morningstar's Jacobson.
Persons: Rick Rieder, Rieder, Eric Jacobson, Morningstar, John Croke ,, Morningstar's Jacobson, Jaime Quinones, they're, Quinones Organizations: Federal Reserve, Barclays, Bank of America, Citigroup, CNBC, Bloomberg, SEC, Morningstar, Vanguard, Stockade Wealth Management, Mutual Locations: Marlboro , N.J
But now that extra spending money is gone, economists are concerned about what comes next. That means many Americans have more debt than savings and suggests “that American households fully spent their pandemic-era savings as of March 2024,” they wrote in a recent report. Consumer spending plays a crucial role in driving economic growth in the United States, and it has shown remarkable strength over the past two years. “A continuing strong labor market could help consumers maintain spending patterns similar to those observed recently, even without pandemic-era savings,” they wrote. What comes next: Disney, Airbnb, Uber, Anheuser-Busch, Tapestry and Dillards all report later this week — investors will look for any comments about how consumer spending, or lack thereof, is altering revenue forecasts for 2024.
Persons: Hamza Abdelrahman, Luiz Edgard Oliveira, , Austan Goolsbee, ’ ”, Fitch, Sarah Wyeth, Chris Kempczinski, Abdelrahman, Airbnb, Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway, Greg Abel, Buffett, , Abel, isn’t, Boeing “, Scott Stocker, Read Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, San Francisco Federal Reserve, Chicago Federal, Society for, , Shoppers, Tyson Foods, , Disney, Anheuser, Busch, Berkshire, International Monetary Fund, Industries, Nvidia, Microsoft, FAA, Boeing, Federal Aviation Administration, CNN Locations: New York, United States, Omaha , Nebraska, Omaha, scamming
"These numbers on abortion have gigantic implications for just about every large company in America," said Cyrus Beschloss, the CEO of The Generation Lab. The CNBC/Generation Lab survey was conducted between April 26 and May 2, and has a margin of error +/- 3.1%. Sour on the economyThe survey also found that respondents had a negative opinion of an economy many would consider robust. The survey showed that 54% of respondents feel inflation impacts them the most in "the cost of food." Offered two options of how the government should proceed with TikTok, a large majority — 70% — of survey respondents said it should "allow TikTok to keep operating as usual."
Persons: Elijah Nouvelage, Cyrus Beschloss, they're, Roe, Wade, Jerome Powell, Powell, Delano Saporu, Saporu, Joe Biden, Steve Cohen, workweek, Kennedy, Biden, Donald Trump, Daniel Steinle Organizations: Emory University, AFP, Getty, CNBC, U.S, Federal Reserve, New Street Advisors, Congress, New York Mets, Biden, Trump, Bloomberg Locations: Atlanta , Georgia, USA, America, Washington, U.S, Waukesha, Waukesha , Wisconsin
Yen eases despite intervention threat, Aussie steady before RBA
  + stars: | 2024-05-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The yen continued to drift lower against the dollar on Tuesday as gaping interest rate differentials weighed on the currency, despite fresh warnings from Japanese officials following two rounds of suspected dollar-selling intervention last week. The U.S. dollar gained 0.22% to 154.235 yen in early Asian trading, adding to its 0.58% rally from Monday. The Aussie edged up 0.17% to $0.6636, heading back towards the high of $0.6650 from Friday, a level last seen on March 8. All but one of the 37 economists surveyed in a Reuters poll expect the RBA to keep rates on hold, with the other predicting a quarter point rate hike, amid stubbornly high inflation. "A different set of central bankers would have had the policy rate higher sooner on the same set of data," Taylor Nugent, a markets economist at National Australia Bank, wrote in a note.
Persons: Michele Bullock, Masato Kanda, Carol Kong, Bullock, Taylor Nugent Organizations: U.S, Reserve Bank of Australia, The U.S ., Bank of Japan, Japan's Ministry of Finance, Federal, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Bank of, National Australia Bank Locations: The, Japan
In Asia, investors await the Reserve Bank of Australia decision on rates as the bank concludes its two-day monetary policy meeting. Economists polled by Reuters expect the RBA to hold its benchmark lending rate at 4.35% for its fourth meeting in a row. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 inched up 0.23% ahead of the decision, on course to gain for a fourth straight day. South Korea's Kospi popped 1.6% as trading resumed after a public holiday, while the small-cap Kosdaq rose 1.08%. Japan's Nikkei 225 also resumed trading after a holiday to rise 0.96%, while the broad-based Topix gained 0.61%.
Persons: Australia's Organizations: Opera, Vivid, Anadolu Agency, Getty, Federal, Reserve Bank of Australia, Reuters, Nikkei Locations: Sydney, Australia, Asia, Pacific
Calling AI profound, Buffet said that the technology is like a "genie" — once it gets let out of the bottle, it could have disastrous effects. It's a question, he said, that has riddled the best economists for a century. Warren Buffett is the first to admit he doesn't know much about artificial intelligence. This rebound has led to questions from corporate executives about factors that could be at play, from AI to return-to-office mandates. "Every company is looking at AI and deciding where it will help them," he said during a recent interview on CNBC's "Money Movers."
Persons: Buffett, Buffet, Warren Buffett, it's, couldn't, John Maynard Keynes, Keynes, Gary Cohn, Cohn, Dev Ittycheria, Elon Musk, Mark Zuckerberg, Sam Altman, Robert Solow, Berkshire Hathaway Organizations: Apple, Berkshire Hathaway, Berkshire, IBM, National Economic, CNBC, Nvidia, McKinsey, Harvard Business Locations: Omaha, Berkshire
But some economists have argued that flawed historical economic data puts this claim in question. The further back you go — the NBER data goes to about 1850 — the more common recessions were. He said the NBER's pre-1914 recession data, in particular, is "very poor," and that only economic data collected after World War II is of good quality. "So the growing share of services also means you're going to have more stable economic growth." AdvertisementTo be sure, while a stable economy has its benefits, it's not the only indicator of a healthy economy.
Persons: , they'll, haven't, George Selgin, what's, NBER, Selgin, Joseph H, Davis, Satyam Panday, Panday, it's, they've Organizations: Service, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cato Institute, of Labor Statistics didn't, US, Vanguard, US Department of Agriculture, Satyam, Federal Reserve, Fed
LONDON — European markets are set to advance Monday as traders continue to assess the possibility of rate cuts after softer-than-expected U.S. jobs data. The French CAC 40 was set to open 50 points higher at 8,239 points, German DAX was expected to jump 60 points to 18,050. Friday's U.S. nonfarm payrolls report showed 175,000 jobs were added in April, below the 240,000 jobs expected by economists surveyed by Dow Jones. The unemployment rate edged up to 3.9% from 3.8% in the prior month, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Wage figures also came in lower than expected, an encouraging sign for inflation.
Persons: DAX, nonfarm, Dow Jones Organizations: CAC, Bureau of Labor Statistics
US stocks surged on Monday amid solid first-quarter earnings reports and renewed hopes of interest rate cuts. The futures market is now pricing in at least two interest rate cuts by the end of the year. AdvertisementUS stocks surged on Monday, extending gains from Friday and marking the best three-day rally of the year as investors cheered solid first-quarter earnings report and hopes for interest rate cuts were renewed. AdvertisementThe futures market sees two 25-basis point interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve by the end of the year, which is an increase from the recent pricing of just one interest rate cut a week ago. Investors will look for further clues about interest rate cuts from several Federal Reserve members this week, with nine scheduled to speak between throughout the week.
Persons: , Tom Barkin Organizations: Service, Nvidia, Federal Reserve Locations: Here's
U.S. Treasury yields were lower Monday, continuing a fall after Friday's April jobs report showed weaker-than-expected payrolls growth and an unexpected tick higher in unemployment. The yield on the 10-year Treasury was off 2 basis points to 4.4975%. The 2-year Treasury yield was slightly lower to 4.8056%. U.S. payrolls rose by just 175,000 last month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Friday, short of the Dow Jones estimate from economists of 240,000. Wage growth was also less than expected, the report showed.
Persons: Dow Jones Organizations: Treasury, of Labor Statistics
A coming recession could end up sparking a "violent correction" in stocks, Gary Shilling told BI. The top forecaster pointed to warning signs of a downturn, such as a weaker job market. AdvertisementInvestors should be prepared for a recession with the potential to send the stock market plummeting this year, according to top forecaster Gary Shilling. That could be the final blow to the stock market rally fueled by investor overconfidence, causing stocks to drop by as much as 30%, Shilling said. Related storiesThe job market, for one, is "obviously slipping" as firms pull back on hiring, Shilling said.
Persons: Gary Shilling, , overconfidence, Shilling, we've, we're Organizations: Service, Business, Wall, Employers, San Francisco, Treasury
US stocks jumped on Monday as investors kept hopes of Fed interest rate cuts alive. The renewed hopes for interest rate cuts came following the lighter-than-expected April jobs report. The futures market is now pricing in two interest rate cuts by the end of the year. AdvertisementUS stocks edged higher on Monday, extending its gains from Friday as investor hope around potential interest rate cuts continues to build. Investors will look for further clues about interest rate cuts from several Federal Reserve members this week, with nine scheduled to speak between throughout the week.
Persons: Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve Locations: Fundstrat, Here's
Read previewThe economy is bound to enter a downturn if the Federal Reserve delays cutting interest rates, according to Marija Veitmane, the head of equity research at State Street Global Markets. The Wall Street vet warned of an impending economic crash if the Fed doesn't ease monetary policy soon. Higher interest rates are already taking a toll on economic strength, she noted, even if growth numbers looked fine last quarter. But the economy is already showing signs of strain from the burden of elevated interest rates, Veitmane warned. Markets are largely expecting the Fed to keep interest rates level at its next policy meeting.
Persons: , Marija Veitmane, Veitmane Organizations: Service, Federal, Street Global Markets, Business, CNBC, AAA
Inflation canceled that, and now it's almost certain that Wall Street's summer is canceled, too. That means Wall Street's fantasies of decamping to the Hamptons for the summer have shattered. You can see why this tug-of-war will keep Wall Street on its toes and off Georgica Beach. There is a certain set on Wall Street that does not get to "rosé all day" on Hamptons summer water when currencies trade that way. The simplicity that Wall Street hoped for is one of the few options that's no longer on the table.
Persons: , Justin Simon, decamping, Jerome Powell, opportunistically, Jamie Dimon, Torsten Slok, Slok, Powell, we'd, David Lefkowitz, dory, McDonald's, Silas Myers, Wall, Zuck, Simon, they're, it's Organizations: Federal Reserve, Jasper Capital, Nasdaq, Hamptons, JPMorgan, Fed, Pepsi, Mar Vista Investments, Wall, Nvidia, Tesla, Microsoft, Meta, Apple, EU Locations: Georgica, Japan
Invigorating growth is critical: When the economy expands, it improves standards of living, promotes innovation and makes households wealthier. Economic growth in Spain and France was stronger than expected last year. But the US is outperforming mainly for one key reason: Robust productivity growth. Productivity growth came in well below expectations in the first three months of the year, according to Labor Department data released last week. A “course correction” isn’t an even stronger US economy: Economic policymakers around the world need to address a range of key issues.
Persons: ” Kristalina Georgieva, ” Georgieva, ” Stephen Gallagher, Gallagher, , , Hande Atay Alam, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Israel Katz, John Williams, Neel Kashkari, Lisa Cook, Krispy Kreme, John’s, Austan Goolsbee Organizations: Washington CNN, Monetary, IMF, European Central Bank, Labor Department, Societe Generale, CNN, Reuters, Palantir Technologies, Tyson Foods, Marriott Worldwide, New York Fed, Disney, UBS, Duke Energy, Suncor, Bros, Minneapolis, Toyota, Uber, Anheuser, Busch InBev, Airbnb, Fox Corporation, News Corporation, Duolingo, Icahn Enterprises, New York Times Company, AMC Entertainment, Honda, Warner Bros Discovery, Warner Music Group, Hyatt, Hilton, Bank of England, US Labor Department, United Kingdom’s, National Statistics, University of Michigan, . Chicago Fed, China’s National Bureau of Statistics Locations: Europe, China, United States, Spain, France, Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, Israel, Gaza, Olesya, “ Turkey, Lyft, TripAdvisor
“There’s just less dollars for consumers to spend.”The challenge for retailers now is to shake consumers out of that frugal mindset. Retail spending has increased in seven of the past 10 months through March. “If you want to convince consumers to spend you have to give them a reason to do so. Lower prices are a clear opportunity to drive people into the store or online.”It’s a lever that Walmart, he said, has pulled forever. Clothing chain H&M told analysts during its most recent earnings call that it, too, would lower prices.
Persons: Sarah Wyeth, , Chad Lusk, Alvarez, ” Wyeth, “ There’s, they’re, Zak Stambor, Stambor, Joe Raedle, ” Stambor, , ” Jesper Brodin, ” Brodin, ” Michaels, ” Ashley Buchanan, Michaels, Lars Daniel Ervér, Frida, Chuck, – CNN’s Bryan Mena Organizations: New, New York CNN —, Ikea, Shoppers, “ Retailers, CNN, Walmart, Ingka, , Cheese, Stambor Locations: New York, Hallandale Beach , Florida
Over that time, the non-farm payrolls survey showed that the US economy gained 640,000 jobs. In addition to believing jobs data is distorted, Rosenberg has said in recent months that stock prices and valuations are disconnected from the macroeconomic picture. The chart below shows the AI boom — represented by the yellow line — with AI stocks climbing several hundred percent since 2022. Rosenberg ResearchDownturn or no downturnRosenberg has been notoriously bearish over the last couple of years, repeatedly warning of a recession. Pantheon MacroeconomicsAs Rosenberg points out, the longer the Fed keeps rates elevated, the higher the risk of a recession becomes.
Persons: David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch's Organizations: Labor Statistics, Business, Rosenberg Research, BLS, Dynamics, Federal Reserve, Nvidia, Bloomberg, Treasury
The US economic expansion should continue in the months ahead, assuming there are no major external shocks, according to Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz. Consumer spending, which makes up about two-thirds of the US economy, is still positive, and job gains have been robust. AdvertisementDespite his generally upbeat outlook, however, Stiglitz is concerned about a number of risks. 4 economic risks to watchThe first is that economic slowdowns happening elsewhere could seep into the US. Congress could shut down again, we might not get some of the necessary bills that we need to continue government," Stiglitz said.
Persons: Joseph Stiglitz, we've, Stiglitz, Brent, Mike Johnson, Trump, Putin Organizations: Service, Columbia University, Conference, Business, Republican Locations: Europe, China, Israel, Palestine, Lebanon, Iran, Ukraine, Russia, Taiwan, Eastern Europe
Stock futures soared higher on Friday morning after new data showed that US job growth slowed considerably last month. The US added just 175,000 new jobs in April, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data released Friday. That's far below economists expectations for 235,000 jobs and the 315,000 jobs added in March. A still-robust job market means the central bank could continue to keep rates elevated without fear of sending the economy into a recession. If the labor market weakens, the Fed is more likely to consider a rate cut.
Persons: That's Organizations: Dow, Nasdaq, of Labor Statistics, Wall Street, Federal Reserve
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